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Gulf Watch | Forecast models shift potential tropical storm farther east, Texas should remain alert

Everyone from Texas to Florida will want to keep an eye on 'Invest 92L' as it moves into the Gulf. It's still too soon to forecast where it will go.

BEAUMONT, Texas — Low pressure has developed in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Many of the forecast models have shifted to the east, directing the potential storm more toward Louisiana. 

The low is expected to move to the southwest and then west and is forecast to become a depression.  

The system will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center increases chance for development over the next 48 hours to 90 percent. 

The chance for development over the next 5 days has increased to 90 percent. 

Be prepared in case the storm tracks our way later this week.

The NHC has classified the disturbance as 'Invest 92L.' If it becomes a named storm it will be called Barry.

It's still too soon to determine what impacts the system will have on the Gulf Coast, but residents from Texas to Florida are urged to keep a very close watch; namely Texas and Louisiana.

There's currently a 90 percent chance of it developing into a tropical system over the next five days and a 90 percent chance for the next two days.

A hurricane reconnaissance plane, aka 'hurricane hunters', are planning to investigate this system beginning Wednesday.

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How this storm evolves remains a mystery. Computer models are all over the place regarding strength. Some models show a weak tropical storm while others show a hurricane. Some models even show what we call "R.I." -- standing for 'rapid intensification.'

What we know so far:

  • 80 percent chance for development by the weekend
  • Everyone from Texas to Florida along the coast needs to keep an eye on it
  • Models shifted east overnight into Tuesday morning
  • The strength and track remain unclear at this time
  • The forecast over the next 24 hours will be very telling
  • If Houston ends up on the western side of the system, we will be on the "dry side;" if Houston ends up with a direct hit or on the eastern side of the system, we will be on the "wet side" and can expect more rain

What do you need to do?

  • Make sure you check on the weather at least twice a day; once in the morning and once in the evening.
  • Check your hurricane supply kits. Make sure you're ready in the event we get a storm, which at this time remains very uncertain.
  • Go over your storm plan with your family. Where would you go? What route would you take if asked to evacuate?
  • Stay informed. Check in with us twice a day. Once in the morning and once before you go to bed so you don't get caught off guard.

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