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Caribbean, Gulf Coast on alert for tropical development this week

A new tropical disturbance has drawn some attention to the Atlantic Ocean Basin.

Following a stretch of less tropical activity, a new tropical disturbance has drawn some attention to the Atlantic Ocean Basin.

Dry air and strong winds over the basin for last several weeks have prevented any organized tropical activity. The last tropical system to form was Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall earlier this month in New Jersey, on July 10.

On Sunday afternoon, a tropical wave drew attention over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas and the waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Currently, the disturbance is creating disorganized showers, but as it draws into the Gulf conditions will become more conducive to tropical development.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty, the tropical wave will move through some of the Caribbean Islands on Tuesday.

The wave is then expected to reach the central Gulf on Wednesday and the northwestern Gulf by Thursday.

The wave is forecast to track very close to the mountainous terrain of Cuba, and as such is not expected to gain wind strength during that time. Instead, the impact may be felt in terms of rainfall.

The presence of the tropical wave will enhance the rainfall in the region, bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorms with some downpours.

Once the wave moves into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, the environment will have more favorable conditions for tropical development. Two of the important ingredients for tropical development are warm, open waters and minimal wind shear, both of which will be present in the Gulf this week.

"Due to the brisk, westward movement of this feature through the warm waters of the Gulf, it will have a limited amount of time to develop," Douty explained.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said that while a hurricane is unlikely, there is about a 40% possibility of the wave developing into a tropical depression, and around a 20% chance of it becoming a named storm.

"Even if it doesn't become a depression, the increase in tropical moisture it will bring into the Gulf and eventually the western Gulf Coast will result in an increase in heavy downpours regardless at the end of the week," Sojda said.

The Gulf of Mexico is not the only body of water that could produce an organized tropical feature this week. In the Eastern Pacific Ocean, there is the potential for a tropical depression to form by the middle of the week.

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