There are 26 days till votes are counted in Texas, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 47% to 43%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein at 1%, according to an exclusive Texas Tenga poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos. (The survey was conducted bilingually, in the respondent's choice of English or Spanish. 27% of the likely voter electorate is Latino inSurveyUSA's data set.)
Though there is not an obvious gender gap --- Trump leads narrowly among both men and women --- different women respond differently to Trump: Among rural Texas women, Trump leads by 41 points. Among suburban Texas women, Clinton leads by 1 point. Trump leads by 35 points among Evangelical voters, leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 10 points among high-school educated voters. Clinton has a narrow advantage among lower-income and middle-income Texans, but Trump leads by 13 points among affluent voters.
Trump holds 88% of the Republican base, but trails Clinton by a nominal 2 percentage points among independents. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base, and leads Trump by 8 points among self-identified moderates. Trump leads among voters age 50+, Clinton leads among voters under age 50. The older and whiter the electorate, the better Trump will perform.
Of Trump supporters, 61% say they are voting "for Trump," compared to 39% who are voting "against Clinton." Of Clinton supporters, 68% say they are voting "for Clinton," compared to 30% who are voting "against Trump."
Trump leads by 8 points in North Texas, which includes the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, and Dallas, Tarrant and 41 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 6 points in East Texas, which includes the city of Houston, Harris and 59 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 15 points in West Texas, which includes the city of El Paso, El Paso County and 87 surrounding counties. Clinton leads in Central Texas, which includes the cities of Austin and San Antonio, and Travis, Bexar and 26 other counties. And Clinton leads by 9 points in South Texas, which includes the cities of Laredo and Brownsville, and Webb, Cameron and 33 other counties.
Context and methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Texas 10/10/16 through 10/12/16. During these 3 days, Trump was the center of a firestorm of criticism, including his un-endorsement by a number of leading national Republicans. It is unclear if, during the 4 days before early voting begins and the 26 days until all votes are counted, whether Trump will continue to sink, stabilize or rebound. The electorate is volatile. It is possible Trump will carry Texas by more traditional margins than this data set shows. It is also possible that the state's score will be settled in the single digits. Of the 800 adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 638 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell phones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried Texas by 16 points in 2012. John McCain carried Texas by 13 points in 2008. Texan George W. Bush carried Texas by 23 points in 2004 when Bush was elected to his 2nd term. Bush carried Texas by 22 points in 2000 when he was elected to his first term.